Pythagorean expectation is a formula invented by Bill James to estimate how many games a baseball team "should" have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. The term is derived from the formula's resemblance to Pythagoras' formula to compute the length of the hypotenuse of a triangle from the lengths of its other two sides.
The basic formula is:
where Win% is the winning percentage generated by the formula. You can then multiply this by the number of games played by a team to compute how many wins one would expect them to win based on their runs scored and allowed.
Lets apply the formula to our current national league standings:
East GP W L Pct RF RA exWP exW exL Dif
ChC (Mike) 26 18 8 .692 139 102 .650 17 9 +1
Atl (Norm) 25 12 13 .480 119 89 .641 16 9 -4
Mil (Nick S.) 26 12 14 .462 82 88 .465 12 14 0
Flo 26 6 20 .231 70 137 .207 5 21 +1
West GP W L Pct RF RA exWP exW exL Dif
Col (Doug) 23 16 7 .696 139 98 .668 15 8 +1
LAD (Dave) 25 15 10 .600 137 111 .604 15 10 0
StL (Nick A.) 23 11 12 .478 95 99 .479 11 12 0
SF 26 10 16 .385 110 150 .350 9 17 +1
exWP: Expected winning percentage
exW: Expected wins, exL: Expected Losses
The theory compares quite nicely with our actual win loss records. What it does point out is something we've all known but now have irrifutable proof - Norm is very unlucky.
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2 comments:
lol. He does the stats, of course he's cheating.
You do the stats then... If I was cheating I would be winning in the AL as well...
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